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Intelligence Analysis Today and Tomorrow
Author: Mark Phythian
Volume 5, Number 1 (Autumn 2009), pp. 67-83.
Abstract
The failure to fully anticipate or prevent the 11 September 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks and the failure to come close to correctly assessing the true state of Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) programmes both had catastrophic consequences. As a result, intelligence analysts have found their tradecraft subjected to the kind of public scrutiny previously reserved for the operational side of intelligence. In this environment a number of possible lessons have been suggested. This article discusses several of these and cautions that some are more apparent than real and that almost all proposed reforms contain within them the seeds of dilemmas that will need to be addressed if the reforms are to have optimum impact.
About the Author
Mark Phythian is Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Leicester, United Kingdom. His research interests are in the areas of intelligence, national security and foreign policy. He is the author or editor/co-editor of nine books including: Intelligence in an Insecure World (with Peter Gill, 2006); The Labour Party, War and International Relations 1945-2006 (2007); Intelligence and National Security Policymaking on Iraq: British and American Perspectives (edited with James P. Pfiffner, 2008); and Intelligence Theory: Key Questions and Debates (edited with Peter Gill & Stephen Marrin, 2008), as well as numerous articles and book chapters. In 2008 he was an Honorary Visiting Professor in the School of Political and International Studies at Flinders University. mp249@le.ac.uk.
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