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Australia’s Strategic Analysis Capabilities: Reaching Critical Mass
Author: Rory Medcalf
Volume 5, Number 1 (Autumn 2009), pp. 53-66.
Abstract
Australia’s strategic analysis capabilities extend far beyond the staff, methods and sources available to formal intelligence assessment agencies, notably the Office of National Assessments (ONA) and the Defence Intelligence Organisation (DIO). Capabilities also encompass: other government organisations, including policy departments, which retain subject-area and analytical expertise; the resources of allied and other friendly countries with which Australia has regular dialogue; and non-government capacity, such as in Australia’s think tanks and universities, to the extent that this can be harnessed by government. The core capabilities, particularly those of ONA, have been substantially improved since the 2004 Flood Inquiry. In particular, staffing levels have been increased, and consultative and analytical processes better systematised. There remains, however, room for improvement, particularly in the exploitation and synthesis of online sources and other publicly-available expertise. The creativity and transparency of the US National Intelligence Council’s 2025 project and the UK Ministry of Defence’s DCDC Strategic Trends project provide models for a possible Australia-specific process of presenting regular and contestable long-term assessments in the public domain.
About the Author
Rory Medcalf directs the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy. He has previously worked as a diplomat, intelligence analyst and journalist. From 2003 to 2007, he was a senior strategic analyst in the Office of National Assessments, Australia’s peak intelligence analysis agency, with a focus on power relations in Asia. His service in the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade included a posting to New Delhi, a secondment to the Japanese foreign ministry, truce monitoring in Bougainville, policy development on the ASEAN Regional Forum, and extensive work on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, notably with the Canberra Commission and the Tokyo Forum. Rory’s journalism was commended in Australia’s premier media awards, the Walkleys. His projects at the Lowy Institute focus on security implications of the rise of China and India, nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, and Australian strategic policy. rmedcalf@lowyinstitute.org.
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