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Geopolitical Shifts in Australia’s Region Towards 2030
Author: Nick Bisley
Volume 5, Number 1 (Autumn 2009), pp. 15-36.
Abstract
This article examines the nature and prospects of geopolitical change in Australia’s region over a twenty five year time horizon. In contrast to the past quarter of a century, in which the region was notable for very stable geopolitical relations, the coming twenty-five years will be marked by a fluidity in fortunes, uncertainty in diplomatic and strategic dealings and an absence of a settled pattern of relations among the major powers. The article’s first part overviews the region’s current setting, the areas of recent change and draws attention to the key developments from which one can expect breaks from the status quo to come. It will then argue that the major attribute of Asia’s international relations in the 21st century will be rivalry among the United States, China, India, Japan and to a lesser extent Russia. Conflict is not inevitable, but the management of rivalry will become increasingly complex and challenging. The final section will argue that Australia needs to put much greater emphasis on flexibility and creativity in its strategic policy.
About the Author
Nick Bisley is Associate Professor in International Relations and Convenor of the Politics and International Relations Program at La Trobe University, Australia. Some of his recent publications include Rethinking Globalization (Palgrave-Macmillan, 2007), ‘Securing the “Anchor of Regional Stability”? The Transformation of the US-Japan Alliance’, Contemporary Southeast Asia 30.1, 2008 and he has just completed an Adelphi Paper for the International Institute for Strategic Studies examining the state and future prospects of Asia’s security architecture. n.bisley@latrobe.edu.au.
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