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Strategic Roles Beyond the Paramount Area: Asia Northeast and West
Author: Rory Medcalf
Volume 3, Number 3 (August 2007), pp. 25-37.
Abstract
This article defines the contours of some possible difficult decisions ahead for Australian security policy in regions beyond the South Pacific and Southeast Asia. With limited defence resources, and potentially limitless global interests, Australia will need to weigh relativities of risk and translate them into deployment decisions. Australia’s military record and capabilities will increase expectations for deployments by the Australian Defence Force, although Australian Governments will typically retain a degree of discretion managing these. Beyond the neighbourhood, key regions of security concern for Australia will remain Northeast Asia and West Asia. Simultaneous contingencies in both regions could make conflicting demands on Australian assets; it would not be a simple allocation of land forces to West Asia and maritime to Northeast Asia. The most prominent low-probability/high-impact conflict scenario in Northeast Asia is likely to remain a US-China war over Taiwan. More likely, however, is a strategic shock on the Korean Peninsula, which might well entail expectations of an Australian response.
About the Author
Rory Medcalf is the International Security Program Director at the Lowy Institute for International Policy. He has worked in intelligence analysis, diplomacy and journalism. From 2003 to March 2007, he was a senior strategic analyst with the Office of National Assessments (ONA). From 1996 to 2003, he served in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. This included a posting to New Delhi, a secondment to the Japanese foreign ministry, truce monitoring in Bougainville, policy development on the ASEAN Regional Forum, and extensive work on non-proliferation, including assisting the 1996 Canberra Commission and the 1999 Tokyo Forum. Mr Medcalf’s earlier work as a journalist was highly commended in Australia’s leading media awards, the Walkleys (1991). He has an Honours degree in political science and a University Medal from the University of Queensland. rmedcalf@lowyinstitute.org.
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