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2015 and the Rise of China: Power Cycle Analysis and the Implications for Australia
Author: Dylan Kissane
Volume 1, Number 1 (November 2005), pp. 105-121.
Abstract
Research undertaken at the University of South Australia has produced a reformulated power cycle theory which balances both military and economic capabilities of actors, producing a graphical representation of the relative distribution of power. For the period between 2000 and 2030, this model suggests that China will continue to rise in power at the expense of the United States, achieving power parity in 2014 and overtaking the sole remaining superpower in 2015. This article introduces the power cycle method, extrapolates forecasts from collected sampling and suggests implications for Australia of an international environment where its principal ally is no longer the predominant power.
About the Author
Dylan Kissane graduated with a BA (International Studies) and the University Medal from the University of South Australia in April 2005. He has recently completed his Honours thesis entitled, ‘Curves, Conflict and Critical Points: Rethinking Power Cycle Theory for the Twenty-First Century’ under Dr David Lundberg. dylan.kissane@unisa.edu.au.
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